September 11, 2008

 

Discussion:

After shower chances for most of the week, will continue to see a slight chance of rain showers today.  Moisture is still adequate over the area, mostly to northern parts of the area, along a diffuse surface boundary.  This will warrant a slight shower chances over the northern target area with a mostly to partly cloudy day for the rest of the target area.  However, the main story continues to be Hurricane Ike which is now located in the central Gulf of Mexico.  Forecast tracks have continually be shifting to the east and looks like it will make landfall to the west of Houston.  Even though the hurricane will make landfall to the east, the wind field is very large.  This means that even though it is making landfall far away, the area could still see tropical force winds on Saturday.  Rain chances have decreased but most locations still stand to see a chance of rain over the weekend.  However, tracks can shift and especially with this storm, as the computer models have been very inconsistent.  A turn could occur and put the area right back into the thick of it.  Showers chances will continue to linger into the long term as a somewhat potent cold front will make its way through the area Monday into Tuesday.  This will also bring cooler temperatures into the area.  As for Ike, looks as though a trough that is over the western/southwestern U.S currently will pick it up and push it into the Mississippi river valley by midweek next week.

As of 11pm, here are the current stats on Hurricane Ike, still a category 2 hurricane:

Maximum sustained winds: 100 mph.

Minimum central pressure: 945 mb

Location:  About 580 miles east/southeast of Corpus Christi and 470 miles east/southeast of Galveston

Movement:  west/northwest at 10 mph

Forecast for the next 36 hours:

Today:  Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 90's.  A slight chance of showers. East/southeast winds 5-10 mph.

--Seeding operations unlikely

Tonight:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Lows in the mid 70's.  East/southeast winds 5-10 mph.

Friday:  Mostly cloudy.  Highs in the mid to upper 90's.  East/northeast winds 10-15 mph.

--SB